Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games

Aug 20, 2023

Andres Munoz's back-to-back saves inspire confidence that he can be an elite fantasy closer going forward. (1:34)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel • Pitching projections: Next 10 days • Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team • Player news wire with fantasy spin

Monday's 12-game slate begins at 4:10 PM ET with the wraparound game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in Petco Park. The remaining 11 contests are standard evening affairs, concluding at 9:40 PM ET when the Oakland Athletics host the Texas Rangers.

The highlight of the day is the return of Eury Perez (26.2% rostered) to the Miami Marlins rotation. He last appeared in the majors on July 6. For the past month, Perez has been with Double-A Pensacola. He made two short appearances leading up to his return, hurling a combined 5 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts and just one walk. The Marlins are still in the thick of the NL wild card hunt, so they'll be balancing needing Perez to make, and advance in the playoffs without jeopardizing the 20-year-old right-hander's career. As such, don't expect many long outings, especially Monday when he takes the hill in the Great American Ballpark against the Cincinnati Reds. Perez is worth a pickup regardless of the opponent, but he'll be relying on Miami's revamped bullpen to finish off potential wins.

Dane Dunning (30.8%) checks in as the day's top streamer. Dunning's 3.14 ERA is artificially low as indicated via a 4.52 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA, but facing the Oakland Athletics lineup assuages worries Dunning is due for a comeuppance. For the season, the Athletics have been the league's second least productive offense facing right-handers, in large part due to a 25.4% strikeout rate, the third highest in MLB. Dunning isn't known for missing bats, but he has a pair of double-digit strikeout games this season, including his last time out against the Chicago White Sox where he punched out 11 in 7 2/3 innings.

Patrick Sandoval (30.1%) gets the call at home with the San Francisco Giants visiting Anaheim for an early week interleague set. The Los Angeles Angels southpaw has registered a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts, despite issuing 13 free passes in those 22 1/3 innings. However, he fanned 19 while allowing just two long balls. Despite utilizing the platoon approach, the Giants have the third lowest wOBA with a lefty on the hill, along with the sixth poorest strikeout rate.

Brayan Bello has been in a rut since coming out of the break as he's recorded a 6.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The main culprit has been homers as he's surrendered seven over those 22 stanzas. His 4.19 xFIP in that span shows just how damaging the homers have been. Bello caught a break as the Boston Red Sox opted to give him an extra day of rest, so instead of facing the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, Bello matches up with the far less dangerous Kansas City Royals lineup, sporting the sixth lowest home run rate facing right-handers in MLB.

Reds' lefthander Brandon Williamson has surrendered 12 homers in just 68 2/3 innings, all to right-handed batters. Jake Burger (8.1%) hit his first homer with the Marlins on Saturday. He and teammate Bryan De La Cruz (18.1%) are both candidates to go deep on Monday, facing Williamson in the Great American Ballpark.

The Milwaukee Brewers batters are in a favorable spot at home with Peter Lambert on the Hill for the Colorado Rockies. Rookie Sal Frelick (13.5%) and Carlos Santana (21.9%) will both enjoy the platoon edge.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Avisail Garcia (MIA, RF -- 0%) at Brandon Williamson

Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 8%) at Brandon Williamson

Yuli Gurriel (MIA, 1B -- 1%) at Brandon Williamson

MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 50%) at Brayan Bello

Bryan De La Cruz (MIA, CF -- 18%) at Brandon Williamson

Michael Massey (KC, 2B -- 1%) at Brayan Bello

Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B -- 30%) at Patrick Sandoval

Seth Brown (OAK, 1B -- 3%) vs. Dane Dunning

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B -- 43%) at Joey Wentz

Francisco Alvarez (NYM, DH -- 35%) vs. Drew Smyly

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 91%) vs. Eury Perez

Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 89%) at Ken Waldichuk

Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 58%) at Kodai Senga

Josh Jung (TEX, 3B -- 61%) at Ken Waldichuk

Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B -- 64%) vs. Tony Gonsolin

Andrew Vaughn (CHW, RF -- 67%) vs. Gerrit Cole

Starling Marte (NYM, RF -- 55%) vs. Drew Smyly

Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF -- 94%) vs. Spencer Strider

Cody Bellinger (CHC, CF -- 93%) at Kodai Senga

Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 58%) at Ranger Suarez